Eat Global, Vote Local

A colleague from graduate school --- I won't name him but he's a well
regarded economic theorist --- somehow stumbled upon my blog post
about voting and commented:

> Presumably the probability that the
> decision ends up in court declines in the margin of victory. Thus, by
> voting one reduces the probability of the decision being made by
> courts.

(Oh, and a shout-out to my Stanford homies --- is that what the kids
are saying these days?)

This point is certainly right, so it's not the case that the benefit
of voting is literally zero as I argued below.

To offer my own add-on to his point, suppose that the burden of proof
in a court case is likely to be on on the side that lost the vote
count. So even if I'm in a 5-4 majority that's reviewed by the
courts, my side may have an easier time prevailing in court on account
of my vote.

But I think it's still the case that the pundits are misinterpreting
Florida 2000.

I think they argue that the lesson that from Florida 2000 is that
"Every vote counts because look how close Florida was."

My response to that is that I already knew that vote tallies could be
close --- that's the whole reason I voted in the first place. But
the Florida experience suggests that what REALLY matters is the view
that the courts take of close elections, not the tally in the close
election itself. So my lesson from Florida 2000 is that my vote
matters even less than I thought it did.

Sad, I know.

But the whole reason to revisit this is the following: Think about
the elections where you ARE likely to be pivotal. Those are the ones
where your vote matters most.

And which elections are those?

Local elections.

If you have a vote for a mayor, a city council person, a zoo bond,
whatever... Those are the elections where your vote will matter. Your
vote --- especially if you are voting in Utah --- is really, really,
really unlikely to affect the presidential election. So don't waste
your time getting informed about the McCain vs. Obama tax plans.
Instead, spend your time getting informed about the city council, the
state legislature, the aviary. That's where your vote is likely to
actually matter.

(I'll return to "Eat Global" in an upcoming post, don't worry.)