Utah: Long Term Prospects

I have a theory about Utah. My theory is that this state is going to grow much faster than the rest of the US over the next 30 years. I think this is a very good place to invest your money and human capital. I'm not saying this because I live here. Rather, I live here (in part) because I'm thinking it.

Why do I think this? Two reasons.

Reason #1 is related to a recent David Brooks column in the NYT. The column summarizes a recent Pew Research Center study on where Americans want to live. The survey asked only about large cities, so Salt Lake wasn't in there. But Brooks writes

Americans still want to go west. The researchers at Pew asked Americans what metro areas they would like to live in. Seven of the top 10 were in the West: Denver, San Diego, Seattle, San Francisco, Phoenix, Portland and Sacramento. The other three were in the South: Orlando, Tampa and San Antonio. Eastern cities were down the list and Midwestern cities were at the bottom.
These are places (except for Orlando) where spectacular natural scenery is visible from medium-density residential neighborhoods, where the boundary between suburb and city is hard to detect. These are places with loose social structures and relative social equality, without the Ivy League status system of the Northeast or the star structure of L.A. These places are car-dependent and spread out, but they also have strong cultural identities and pedestrian meeting places. They offer at least the promise of friendlier neighborhoods, slower lifestyles and service-sector employment. They are neither traditional urban centers nor atomized suburban sprawl.

This is Salt Lake City to a T. SLC's combination of amenities perfectly lines up with where Americans' preferences are going.

But of course this isn't sufficient to get growth; prices matter too. An example will help make my point. I can say from experience that the SF Bay Area is a spectacularly great place to live. But it's such a great place that prices of scarce local resources --- think housing, in particular --- are incredibly high. So, even though Palo Alto has great amenities, it's doesn't offer great value.

Which brings us to Reason #2.

Outsiders' perceptions of Utah are simply mistaken. Outsiders think you can't get a drink here (false). They think the LDS Church runs every aspect of life (false). It is true that state liquor laws remain unusual. And it's also true that the Church is influential. But the impact of these factors on day-to-day life is small, at least to me.

However, these misperceptions keep people out, and means that prices are lower here. If you want to live in a nice place and live an active outdoor lifestyle... I think you can do so less expensively here than anywhere else.

But as more outsiders respond to these price differences by moving here, Utah will change. It'll continue to become more like the rest of the US, and as it does, its strangeness will fade --- which will make it that much more attractive. Once this growth-ball gets rolling, it's going to be hard to stop.

So this is one reason why the University of Utah is a great place to be. We're quite a good university now, but there's going to be a chance for greatness as the resource base of the state expands.

I hope I'm right.